Chiefs ‘heart attack football’ could come at a huge cost for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce
Does the Chiefs‘ NFL-best record come with an asterisk?
Usually, when an NFL team wins 11 of its first 12 games in a season, there are relatively few doubts its their talent level or how “good” the team is. But that is not the case for the Kansas City Chiefs, who face more doubts and “haters” entering the month of December than ever before.
The Chiefs are pursuing NFL history this winter, as Kansas City hopes to become the first team in league history to win the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. With an 11-1 record, the Chiefs are on track to secure home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium throughout the AFC playoffs when they start in January, and Kansas City responded to its loss to the Bills in Buffalo by defeating the rival Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. Yet, even in victory, the Chiefs continue to sow doubt around the NFL as to whether their three-peat dreams can become reality after all.
Chiefs heavily reliant on good fortune
Even the very best teams in the NFL and indeed around the sporting world require a smattering of luck to go their way as they pursue the ultimate prize. The potential problem with the Chiefs though is that they have relied on that luck to build their 11-1 record — and data analysis suggests such a run is unsustainable.
“The Chiefs are the luckiest team in the NFL right now,” wrote analyst Ben Rolfe of Pro Football Network. “Their 11-1 record is 3.21 wins above their projected win-loss record based on their metrics in games this season.”
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Dating to last season, the Chiefs have won a remarkable 14 one-score games in a row — including last season’s Super Bowl. There is something to be said for how well-coached Kansas City continues to be under Andy Reid and his staff; the Chiefs don’t often make big mistakes when a game is on the line, and Patrick Mahomes has shaken off a rough start to the season to play at a level closer to his MVP form of the past. Legendary tight end Travis Kelce is again the team’s leading receiver with 75 catches and 637 yards.
No one doubts that the Chiefs are a “good” team, but their plus-54 point differential against a relatively-soft schedule is far inferior to other Super Bowl contenders like the Bills (plus-131), the Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-72), the Philadelphia Eagles (plus-102), and the Detroit Lions (plus-180). It remains to be seen how the Chiefs’ brand of “heart attack football” will hold up this time against opponents that appear to be more dominant.
